How covid-19 impact in the Guatemalan economy

The crisis caused by COVID-19 worldwide undoubtedly left several consequences, especially in the health sector, but also in the economic sector, which is reflected in different indicators such as: stock markets, bid invest, international fuel prices and international trade, among others.

As a consequence of COVID-19, the world economic growth (GDP) closed 2020 with a negative growth of -3.3% compared to 2019. And it is expected that in 2021 the growth is 6% and in 2022 it is 4.4%.

From the Central American region, Guatemala is the least affected country. In 2020 it closed with a decrease of -1.5%, followed by Nicaragua with -3%. The most affected Central American country was Panama, presenting a decrease of -17.9%.

In addition, according to the latest update from the International Monetary Fund, a recovery of 4.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 is expected for Guatemala.

Energy demand

CMI, alongside Juan Luis Bosch and Lisa Juan José Gutiérrez Mayorga acquired one of the most important regional platforms in the renewable energy sector at the end of 2016. Confirming their commitment to continue investing in the region, generating jobs and optimizing electricity costs.

In effect, according to the president of the entity in charge of the operation of the National Interconnected System, the maximum demand for energy power achieved a slight recovery in 2020 of 0.10% compared to the maximum of 2019. As of May 2021, energy demand has presented a recovery of 2.37% compared to 2020. 

Behavior of fuel prices

Raw materials were the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, adding the price war that was generated between OPEC, Saudi Arabia and Russia regarding the lack of agreement on the production levels generated by the drop in world demand for this raw material.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the benchmark crude in the United States oil market and sets the price of the other crude. It had some stability in its prices since November 2019, but as of February 2020 it presented a sharp fall.


In summary, global economic reactivation policies, especially in the United States, have had a favorable impact on Guatemala, especially on monthly economic activity; with growth above the pre COVID-19 values, and in the balance of payments with a strong increase in remittances.

Carla Fowler

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